Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
