Past this Ceremony of Putin's Delhi Visit: The India-Russia Relationship Which Has Diminished.
This rhetoric and optics from the Russian leader Vladimir Putin's most recent visit to India projected a strong bilateral partnership. Indian PM Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a hug, and the statesmen shared a ride together, echoing a known political gesture. In his remarks, Modi called Putin as "my friend" and described the Indo-Russian connection as a "guiding star", founded on "mutual respect and deep trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This was Putin's tenth visit to India during his 25-year tenure and his 20th encounter with Modi since the latter assumed the premiership in 2014.
A Gap Separating Symbolism and Reality
However, a significant gap exists between the ceremony and the substance of this partnership. Although Putin pledged "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are actually purchasing less Russian oil because of international tariffs and sanctions. The two countries signed a series of memorandums of understanding covering mobility, health, agriculture, maritime cooperation, and academic exchanges. But, anticipated revelations on significant defence contracts failed to come to pass. India has abstained from any substantial defence agreements with Russia since the 2022 offensive of Ukraine, a trend fueled by delays in shipments of platforms and spare parts as Moscow focuses on its own defence needs.
A Relationship With Diminished Strategic Weight
These developments indicates that the India-Russia dynamic no longer carries the same geopolitical heft it previously did. During the Cold War, India enjoyed preferential barter arrangements and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its satellite states. This privileged relationship peaked in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded ahead of a war with Pakistan during which Islamabad was supported by the US and China. Although both countries have sought to maintain a semblance of this special bond through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership announced in 2010, the truth is that their engagement does not have the former significance as New Delhi has significantly strengthened relations with the West.
Broadening and Underlying Contradictions
New Delhi is unlikely to sever its crucial relationship with Moscow. But, as external pressure mounts on India to reduce its imports of Russian oil, both nations are seeking to diversify the relationship into new areas. On Putin's visit, they announced an economic cooperation program lasting until 2030, designed to make their relations "broader, balanced and long-lasting". This includes enhancing market access for Indian goods to rectify a trade deficit strongly tilted in Russia's favour. Collaboration between the two spans multiple strategically important sectors – from space and atomic energy to defence and agriculture.
Sentimental Affinity and Perceived Reliability
At an ideological level, a high degree of affinity with Russia remains, particularly among senior generations of policymakers in New Delhi who remember Moscow's pivotal role during the Cold War. This has resulted in a certain level of sympathy for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. During ongoing tensions between India and the US, in which American leaders have issued sharp remarks about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a more dependable ally.
This challenge, naturally, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The extensive joint statement released during Putin's India trip contained no mention to Ukraine, even though it paradoxically referred to the relationship as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted assertion that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's public steps regarding the conflict have been minimal.
Squaring the Dilemma: India's Foreign Policy Tightrope
This situation highlights the inherent contradictions in India's international stance. The country is set to conclude a free trade agreement with the EU, after a similar pact with the UK this year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada declared a three-way technology partnership. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although efforts are being made to strengthen people-to-people exchanges between India and Russia.
How will India square this complex equation? New Delhi will be hoping that current talks will succeed, leading to a cessation of fighting and the elimination of a key thorn in its ties with the Western bloc. However, even if a peace deal is achieved, if it fails of a "just peace" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, scrutiny of the India-Russia alliance will undoubtedly persist in European and American governments.
