Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."